Monday, March 30, 2009

Analisa Saham BISI, LTLS dan PGAS

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Chart Pattern: Four Price Doji pada 24/03
Previous Trend: Down Trend
Trading Signal: Side Ways
Rekomendasi: Tunggu terjadinya perpotongan +DI dan -DI ntuk konfirmasi buy

Chart BISI....

Pada 2 minggu yg lalu (18/03) saham LTLS membentuk pattern candle Gravestone Doji, dimana trend sebelumnya adalah Side Ways dan pada awal minggu lalu (23/03) Candle LTLS kembali membentuk pattern Long Legged Doji.
Akankah LTLS minggu ini trendnya akan berubah dari Up trend menjadi down trend? Mari kita lihat minggu ini.
Resistance dan support selama minggu ini: 1076.66 dan 786.66.

Pada minggu lalu (25/03) candle saham PGAS membentuk pattern Long Legged Doji, dimana trend sebelumnya adalah Up Trend.
Tunggu harga penutupan (close price) di bawah 2150 untuk konfirmasi Sell.

Trading signal untuk saham lainnya: TLKM (Hold), UNVR (Sell)

Sunday, March 29, 2009

Ulasan Analisa Saham JPRS

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Pada Belajar Analisa Saham saya kali ini, saya kembali akan menganalisa pergerakan saham JPRS (bukan berarti saya ngefan sama saham ini lho...tapi sebagai bahan pembelajaran saya dalam technical analysis).

Dalam postingan saya beberapa hari yang lalu yakni tentang Analisa saham JPRS dan (Lagi) Analisa Saham JPRS, saya mengatakan untuk menunggu signal sell jika harga penutupan saham JPRS dibawah harga 370 untuk konfirmasi sell. Ternyata pada 20/03 saham JPRS telah membentuk candlestick pattern four price doji disusul dengan harga close pada hari-hari selanjutnya cenderung turun dibawah harga close di 20/03 dan gap up yang terjadi pada 19/03 telah ditutup pada 23/03 di harga close 310, yang sekaligus mengkonfirmasi untuk sell.

Prediksi trend Saham JPRS kedepannya adalah Down Trend.

Ulasan Analisa Saham SMMA

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Baca kembali postingan analisa saham saya tentang Analisa saham SMMA. Saat itu SMMA membentuk pattern Four Price Doji,

dimana setelah membentuk pattern tsb harga saham SMMA cenderung naik yang diikuti juga kenaikan volume yg puncaknya pada 24/03 dengan kembali membentuk pattern White Marubozu namun close price nya stagnan di 600 yg diikuti juga penurunan volume.
Rekomendasi: tunggu perpotongan +DI dan -DI untuk konfirmasi Sell.

Thursday, March 26, 2009

Asian Markets End Mixed as Investors Take Profits

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The markets across the Asia-Pacific region ended mixed on Wednesday, as investors preferred profit taking following an extended relief rally. The markets, having shrugged off the early weakness following a weak closing by Wall Street stocks, could not maintain the momentum and the euphoria over a revival in global economic conditions seems to be losing steam for want of evidence that could instill confidence. Global demand continues to be weak as is evident from a report released earlier in the day by the Japanese government, which showed that exports plummeted by a record 49.9% year-over- year while imports fell 43.0% year-over-year to 3.443 trillion yen.

In Asian trading, crude oil declined about 1.3% in electronic trading, ahead of the release of the U.S. weekly petroleum inventories report. Light sweet crude oil for May delivery ended $0.18 higher on New York Mercantile Exchange at $53.98, after hitting an intra-day high of $54.20 and a low of $52.45.

In Japan, the benchmark Nikkei 225 Index declined 8.31 points, or 0.10% to close at 8,480, while the broader Topix Index of all First Section issues gained 5.77 points, or 0.7% to close at 818.

Investors evinced interest in companies whose business year will end on 31 March, as this is the last day the shares traded with rights for dividend. KDDI Corp, the second largest mobile operator in the country, gained 5.99%, and JFE Holdings, the second largest steel maker in the country, advanced 4.41%. Japan Tobacco gained 4.86%.

Banking stocks ended on a mixed note. While Mitsubishi UFJ, Japan's biggest bank, declined 0.56%, Resona Holdings lost 1.61%, and Sumitomo Mitsui fell 1.01%, Mizuho Financial moved up 0.87%. Shinsei Bank ended lower by 2.63% as the bank stated that it is planning to raise 48.2 billion yen by issuing preferred securities in the current month as it seeks to bolster its capital base.

Exporters declined on the back of a stronger yen. Canon lost 0.52%, Sharp declined 1.56% and Sony fell 2.35%. However, automakers advanced. Toyota moved up 1.27% and Honda Motor gained 0.43%.

Oil related stocks ended mixed. Inpex lost 3.01%, but Showa Shell moved up 0.87% and Nippon Oil advanced 1.92%. Among trading houses, Mitsubishi Corp. gained 1.02% and Sumitomo Corp. advanced 1.42%, but Itochu declined 0.19%.

Electronics maker Sanyo Electric Co. warned of a 90 billion yen net loss for the year ending March 2009, hurt by the worsening global recession. This compares to its earlier forecast that it would breakeven. The company's stock dropped 1.44%.

In Sydney, the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index gained 29.30 points, or 0.82% to close at 3,609, and the broader All Ordinaries Index moved up 0.82%, or 28.90 points, to end at 3,546.

Financials advanced on hopes that the plan unveiled by the U.S to remove toxic assets from banks' balance sheet will help the global financial sector to stabilize sooner than expected. Australia and NZ Bank advanced 4.52%, National Australia Bank rose 3.63%, Westpac Bank added 2.97% and Commonwealth Bank of Australia increased 3.26%. However, investment bank Macquarie Group declined 4.68%.

In the resources sector, mining conglomerates ended on a mixed note after commodity prices declined in London Metals Exchange on Tuesday.

While BHP Billiton declined 1.51%, rival Rio Tinto gained 1.24% after the Australian Consumer and Competition Commission stated that the proposed investment by Aluminum Corp. of China in Rio Tinto will not affect the iron ore, copper, bauxite and alumina markets. Resource company Alumina Ltd surged up 8.07%. Oz Minerals gained more than 7% following the news that the bankers might extend loans to the company even as the Regulators sought more time to review the takeover proposal from China Minimetals Group.

Gold miners ended mostly weak after gold closed lower for a third straight session overnight. Newcrest lost 2.54% and Lihir Gold declined 3.04%. However, Sino Gold advanced 2.16%.

Following the modest gain in crude oil price overnight, oil stock Woodside Petroleum gained 2.29%, Santos advanced 4.90% and Oil Search rose 2.76%.

Retail stocks ended mostly higher. While Wesfarmers gained 3.53%, Harvey Norman rose 1.56% and David Jones added 1.06%, Woolworths dropped 0.28%.

In Hong Kong, the benchmark Hang Seng Index decreased 288.23 points, or 2.07%, to close at 13,622. Almost all the stocks, which witnessed a rally in the past few trading sessions, ended lower on profit taking.

Among financials, HSBC Holdings fell 4.69%, Hang Seng Bank lost 2.65%, BOC Hong Kong decreased 2.30%, Bank of East Asia shed 2.68% and Bank of Communications dropped 1.66%. However, Bank of China gained 1.68%.

Insurance stocks ended lower. Ping An lost 4.74%, and China Life decreased 1.74%. In telecom space, Hutchison Whimpoa fell 2.60%, Tencent declined 5.72% and China Mobile lost 0.30%.

Resource stocks also ended weaker. Aluminum Company of China, or Chalco, decreased 2.76%. CNOOC shed 4.94% and Petrochina slipped 0.30%.

Among china-related stocks, China Overseas fell 3.53% and China Resources edged down 0.16%. Utility stocks ended mixed. While HK Electric advanced 1.06%, HK & China Gas fell 0.17%.

The benchmark KOSPI Index in South Korea ended higher by 7.32 points or 0.60% at 1,229 driven by expectations that liquidity in the market will increase following measures taken by the government.

The Ministry of Health, Welfare and Family Affairs has revealed that rules governing investment in domestic stock markets by the country's largest institutional investor, the National Pension Service, has been relaxed. The pension service is now allowed to invest in a range between 10% and 24% of its total assets in domestic markets, as against its previous range between 12% and 22%.

Meanwhile, data released by the Korea Automobile Manufacturers Association revealed that auto exports to Eastern Europe plunged sharply by 70.7% during February 2009 to 11,216 vehicles. The head of the Korea Development Institute, Hyun Oh-seok, stated that the country's economy is presently accumulating energy and might rebound from the second half of the year.

Financial stocks ended mixed. While Shinhan Financial Group fell 0.92%, KB Financial, the holding firm of Kookmin Bank, advanced 0.43%, and Woori Finance gained 0.92%.

Among shipbuilders, Hyundai Heavy Industries gained 1.95%, Daewoo Ship building advanced 2.22% and Samsung Heavy Industries rise 2.99%.

Market heavyweight Samsung Electronics lost 0.54%. In the technology space, while Hynix Semiconductor fell 1.92%, LG Electronics and LG Display advanced 2.06% and 2.36% respectively. Oil-related stocks advanced. SK Holdings gained 3.69%, and S-oil moved up 0.68%.

Among the other major markets, China's Shanghai Composite Index declined 2%, or 46.86 points, to 2,292, Indonesia's Jakarta Composite Index fell 13.51 points, or 0.94% to 1,423, and Singapore's Strait Times Index lost 0.93%, or 15.87 points, to 1,690. However, the Taiwan Weighted Index gained 1.99%, or 104.20 points, to 5,346.

Major Averages Move Off Their Highs But Remain Firmly Positive

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Stocks have shown a strong upward move over the course of morning trading on Wednesday, with the major averages offsetting the losses posted in the previous session. The rebound comes as traders react to some much better than expected economic data.

Earlier in the day, the Commerce Department released a report revealing that durable goods orders unexpectedly showed a substantial increase in the month of February after falling in each of the six previous months.

The report showed that durable goods orders jumped 3.4 percent in February after falling by a revised 7.3 percent in January. Economists had been expecting durable goods orders to fall by 2.5 percent compared to the 4.5 percent decrease that had been reported for the previous month.

The Commerce Department also released a separate report showing an unexpected in increase in new home sales in the month of February, continuing a recent string of better than expected housing market reports.

The report showed that new home sales rose 4.7 percent to an annual rate of 337,000 in February from an upwardly revised January rate of 322,000. The results surprised economists, who had been expecting sales to fall to 300,000 from the 309,000 originally reported for the previous month.

In recent trading, the major markets have moved well off their best levels of the day, although they are holding onto strong gains. The Dow is currently up 148.46 at 7,808.43, the Nasdaq is up 26.03 at 1,542.55 and the S&P 500 is up 15.07 at 821.32.

Tuesday, March 24, 2009

Nasdaq Pulls Back To A New Low For The Session

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Stocks are seeing notable weakness in mid-morning trading on Tuesday, with the major averages giving back some ground after posting standout gains in the previous session. The weakness in the markets is largely due to profit taking following Monday's rally.

While stocks are moving mostly lower, selling pressure has remained somewhat subdued, as traders keep an eye on comments by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner's before the House Financial Services Committee.

In prepared remarks, Bernanke drove home the point that while the bonuses AIG has given to employees were inappropriate, the overall bailout of the world's largest insurer was necessary to prevent a 1930s style meltdown.

Additionally, Geithner made it known that the AIG Financial Products division was unregulated, operating in unregulated ways and that all institutions that pose systemic risk to the broader economy must be subject to oversight.

The major averages have moved to the downside in recent trading, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq pulling back to a new low for the session. The Dow is currently down 100.75 at 7,675.10, the Nasdaq is down 27.08 at 1,528.69 and the S&P 500 is down 11.99 at 810.93.

Asian Markets End Higher on Optimism about Banking Sector Stability

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The major markets across the Asia-Pacific region ended in the green on Tuesday, buoyed by the cues from Wall Street, where the markets witnessed the biggest one-day rally since October 2008 after the Obama Administration unveiled plans to help banks sell toxic assets and pave way for a revival in credit flow, which is critical for reviving the economy. Positive economic data on existing home sales also lifted market sentiment.

Market analysts are speculating that the extension of the relief rally might signal that the bottom has already been reached and the markets may find stability in the short-term, on optimism that the plans will really work and the global economic recovery might take place sooner than expected, with the banking sector likely to lead the recovery.

Crude oil was modestly down at $53.54 a barrel in Asian trading having ended Monday's session higher by $1.73 at $53.80 a barrel on New York Mercantile Exchange after hitting an intra-day low of $51.62 and a high of $54.05.

In Tokyo, the benchmark Nikkei 225 Index ended 273 points or 3.32% higher at 8,488. The broader Topix Index of all First Section issues gained 2.7% or 21.16 points to 813.

On the economic front on Tuesday, minutes from the Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting held on February 18 and 19 revealed that board members suggested that the Japanese economy may begin to recover from the current recession in the second half of this year at the earliest. At the meeting, the board voted unanimously to keep the overnight call rate unchanged at 0.10%. The board also decided to expand special funds-supplying operations in order to facilitate a fall in longer-term interest rates that are actually applicable to fund-raising by firms and relieve them from funding concerns.

Among banking stocks, Mitsubishi UFJ, Japan's biggest bank, gained 4.49%, Sumitomo Mitsui rose 3.16% and Mizuho Financial advanced 5.00%. Exporters also gained on the back of a weaker yen. Canon advanced 4.35%, Sharp gained 3.08% and Sony rose 5.72%. Automaker Toyota added 3.61% and Honda moved up 2.42%.

Oil-related stocks also advanced. Inpex edged up 0.14%, Nippon Oil gained 3.35% and Showa Shell added 1.10%. Among trading houses, Mitsubishi Corp. gained 4.23%, Itochu moved up 3.99% and Sumitomo Corp. rose 1.89%.

In Australia, the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index, having opened strongly and gained as much as 2.6% in early trading, pared back much of its gains over the course of the session before ending higher by 29.7 points, or 0.84%, to 3,580, and the broader All Ordinaries Index, following a similar trend, closed the session up 34.20 points, or 0.98%, at 3,517.

Mining stocks advanced on higher commodity prices. BHP Billiton, the largest mining company in the world, gained 1.77% and Rio Tinto, the third largest miner in the world, advanced 4.73%. However, Oz Minerals shed 11.02% after the government extended its review into a A$1.8 billion rescue bid by Chinese state-owned Minmetals.

Among energy stocks, Woodside gained 4.50%, Oil Search advanced 5.43% and Santos rose 1.67%.

Financial stocks ended mixed as investors resorted to profit taking at higher levels. ANZ Banking Group added 1.31%, National Australia Bank moved up 0.35% and Westpac Banking gained 0.84%. Investment bank Macquarie Group surged 5.38%. On the other hand, Commonwealth Bank of Australia ended lower by 1.65%.

Retail stocks also ended mixed. David Jones advanced 1.38%, and Coles' owner Wesfarmers gained 0.97%, while Woolworths fell 1.12%.

Gold miners ended weak after gold closed marginally lower for a second straight session on Monday. Lihir Gold lost 3.53% and Newcrest Mining shed 1.96%. However, Sino Gold bucked the trend and edged up 0.18%.

In Hong Kong, the benchmark Hang Seng Index gained 462.92 points, or 3.44% to close at 13,910, led by financial stocks, telecom and china-related shares.

Among financials, HSBC Holdings surged up 9.83%, Hang Seng Bank gained 4.94%, BOC Hong Kong advanced 6.57%, Bank of East Asia rose 6.97%, and Bank of Communications added 4.04%. Insurance stocks also gained. Ping An Insurance rose 4.44% and China Life moved up 0.58% from previous close.

Telecom stocks ended higher; Hutchison Whimpoa advanced 5.62%, China Mobile gained 1.59%, and Tencent Holdings gained 5.12%.

China-related stocks ended mixed. China Mercantile Holdings surged 11.18% and China Resources gained 0.49%. However, China Overseas lost 2.65%.

Among other major stocks, Foxconn International Holdings gained 7.91%, while retailer Espirit Holdings lost 4.71%

Resource stocks showed mixed sentiment. While Aluminum Company of China, or Chalco, decrealsed 1.17%. CNOOC and Petrochina gained 4.35% and 0.93% respectively.

The benchmark KOSPI Index in South Korea gained 22.20 points, or 1.85% and closed at 1,222.

In an effort to revive the economy by boosting demand, the South Korean government approved an extra budget of 28.9 trillion Won, equivalent to $20.7 billion, earlier in the day.

Further, in a meeting with the local business leaders and economic analysts, the Minister for Knowledge Economy stated that, based on the preliminary report from the Korea Customs Service, trade surplus for March is likely to reach $4.5 billion, due to a much sharper decline in imports than in exports during the first 20 days of the month. The data accentuates the weakness in the domestic economy.

Among the financials, Woori Finance gained 2.41%, Shinhan Financial Group advanced 3.61% and KB Financial Group, the holding firm of Kookmin bank, moved up 4.63%.

Market heavyweight Samsung Electronics rose 1.82%. Among technology stocks, Hynix Semiconductor added 0.97%. LG Electronics gained 3.60%, and LG Display moved up 2.04%.

Shipbuilders also ended higher. Hyundai Heavy Industries advanced 1.23%, Samsung Heavy Industries gained 1.90%, and Daewoo Ship building rose 2.97%.

Oil-related stocks advanced on higher crude oil prices. SK Holdings gained 4.33%, and S-Oil rose 1.37%.

Among the other major markets, China's Shanghai Composite Index rose 12.94 points or 0.50% to 2,338, Indonesia's Jakarta Composite Index closed at 1,436, up 29.47 points, or 2.02%, Singapore's Strait Times Index gained 2.54%, or 42.26 points, to 1,706, and Taiwan's Weighted Index added 118.30 points, or 2.30%, to 5,242.

Monday, March 23, 2009

Market Summary

Market Summary up to half a day (Monday, March 23, 2009)

Wow ... up to half a day ... all the major index postif teritory including Jakarta Composite (JKSE).... Hopefully Jakarta Composite (JKSE) still survive and even more increased again until closing session.

We are waiting for ...

Sunday, March 22, 2009

Stock Analysis

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The major market of Asia-Pacific region end mixed on Friday, except Japan, which is closed for a holiday.

In Hong Kong, Hang Seng Index ended down by 297 points, or 2.26%, at 12,833. The index, which opened higher at 13,157, declined further in early trading. After the first hour of trading, the selling pressure waned, resulting in sideways movement until late trading, when intensification of the selling pressure sent the index sharply lower. At the close of trading, the index was down 297.41 or 2.26% at 12,834.

In South Korea, KOSPI Index, having opened 3 points higher from previous close of 1,161, traded in positive territory throughout the day in a narrow range of 1,163 to 1,180 amid alternate bouts of buying and selling, and finally ended up 9 points, or 0.74% at 1,172.

Among the other major markets, China's Shanghai Composite Index ended higher by 15 points, or 0.68% at 2,281, Indonesia's Jakarta Composite Index advanced by 19 points, or 1.44% at 1,361, and Singapore's Strait Times Index gained 12 points, or 0.76% to 1,597. Taiwan's Weighted Index lost 74 points, or 1.48%, to close at 4,962.

My trading on last week (March 16-20, 2009):

Chart Pattern: Dragonfly Doji
Previous Trend: Up Trend
Trading: wait for close price lower then 660 for confirmation sell

My watchlist on this week:
Chart pattern = White Marubozu
Previous Trend = Side Ways
Recomendation = Wait for close price greater then 8150 for confirmation buy.

Chart Pattern: White Marubozu
Previous Trend: Side Ways
Recomendation: Wait for close price greater then 7100 for confirmation buy

Friday, March 20, 2009

Analisa Saham SMMA

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Perhatikan pergerakan saham SMMA. Sejak 18/03 Saham SMMA ini telah membentuk four price doji. Trendnya masih Up Trend.

Tunggu harga close di bawah 450 untuk konfirmasi Sell.

Resistance dan supportnya:
R3 = 580
R2 = 551.67
R1 = 523.34
Pivot = 481.67
S1 = 453.34
S2 = 411.67
S3 = 383.34

Projected High Range = 502.5 to 537.5
Proyeksi Range Low = 482.5 to 447.5

Fib projected High = 529.04 dan
Fib Projected Low = 420.96

Watchlist: Saham LTLS, SMRA, KAEF, ETWA, SPMA

Thursday, March 19, 2009

(Lagi) Analisa saham JPRS

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Belajar Analisa Saham kali ini masih akan menganalisa saham JPRS.

Hari ini (19/03) harga close saham JPRS berada di level 375, naik 35 poin (+10.29%) dari harga penutupan di hari sebelumnya.
Meski trendnya masih Up Trend, namun hari ini saham JPRS telah membentuk Long Legged Doji dan RSI = 99.01 (overbought). Jangan lupa juga hari ini terjadi GAP UP.
Tunggu harga penutupan saham JPRS dibawah harga 370 untuk konfirmasi sell.

Saham JPRS (19 Maret 2009)

Resistance dan supportnya untuk besok adalah:
R3 = 485
R2 = 448.33
R1 = 411.66
Pivot = 383.33
S1 = 346.66
S2 = 318.33
S3 = 281.66

Proyeksi Range High = 397.5 to 430
Proyeksi Range Low = 410 to 377.5

Sementara Fib projected High = 437.68 dan Fib Projected Low = 337.32

Wednesday, March 18, 2009

Analisa Saham JPRS dan Saham MIRA

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Perhatikan saham JPRS.

Hari ini 18 Maret saham JPRS telah membentuk candlestick white Marubozu, dimana trend hariannya adalah Up Trend sejak 11 Maret kemarin.
Ini dikonfirmasi juga oleh indikator RSI(5) = 94.14 (overbought), SAR Buy serta MACD diatas signal.

Perhatikan juga pergerakan saham MIRA.
Sejak 11 Maret harga Saham MIRA membentuk candlestick white Marubozu dengan trend hariannya hingga hari ini (18 Maret) adalah UP Trend.
Indikator pendukungnya adalah RSI(5) = 87.50 (overbought), MACD diatas Signal serta SAR Buy.

Jika sudah mengambil posisi buy sejak tanggal-tanggal tsb diatas untuk MIRA maupun JPRS, sebaiknya besok direalisasikan (dijual) dahulu mengingat besok adalah adalah Kamis dimana biasanya para trader akan mengambil posisi take profit.

Monday, March 02, 2009

Info Pagi (02-Maret-2009)

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Pada 25-Peb, IHSG membentuk Long Legged Doji.
Trend minggu ini IHSG dan DJI diprediksi masih dalam DOWN TREND,
ini didukung oleh indikator seperti MACD dibawah Signal, SAR Sell, EMA(5) dibawah EMA(20) dan EMA(60).

Mingu ini:
  • Saham-saham yg melanjutkan DOWN TREND nya --> INDF, BISI,BNGA,BBCA, BBNI, BBRI, PGAS, ISAT, SMGR, ADRO,
  • Saham-saham yg mulai DOWN TREND --> BMRI, JSMR
  • Saham-saham yang masih akan melanjutkan UP TREND --> LPKR, MEDC

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